New legal storm looms over the UK: Will it scrap its £11.6 billion climate pledge?

Whilst the climate crisis keeps taking its toll on the global stage, the latest Climate Change Committee (CCC) report warned of a lack of urgency from the UK government, as credible plans are in place for less than a fifth of required emissions cuts. Three organisations have joined forces to expose in court once again – what they deem to be – the weakness of the government’s net-zero strategy. The plot thickens further with a leaked document about the UK’s alleged plans to scrap its £11.6 billion (close to $14.9 billion) climate pledge. The country is also grappling with an upskilling crisis in the energy sector.

According to the Guardian, a leaked document shows that Rishi Sunak’s government is planning to drop the £11.6 billion climate pledge, which is the UK’s contribution to meeting the global $100 billion (£78.6 billion) a year commitment to developing countries, expected to help tackle the impacts of climate change, fund solutions and protect and restore nature.

The reasons listed allegedly state that the problem is money as there isn’t enough of it. However, environmental groups and organisations point out that the UK government is giving tax breaks to fossil fuel companies to the tune of £11.4 billion (nearly $14.55 billion) at the same time.

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A lot of uncertainty has been brewing over the UK’s oil and gas industry recently, thus, striking the right balance between energy security and the green shift seems crucial to many energy institutions and organisations to avoid undermining the country’s energy security, as a recent report warned that Britain might need to import 80 per cent of its oil and gas by 2030 without new investment in domestic production.

At a time when the UK’s windfall tax hike on oil and gas producers’ profits is pushing multiple players to contemplate downgrading their UK portfolio or even exiting the North Sea, political tensions and uncertainties over the sector’s future are perceived as additional roadblocks to investment in domestic oil and gas.

In line with this, Labour’s energy roadmap – if the party wins the elections – envisages making the UK a clean power by 2030 with the help of marine and tidal energy, offshore and onshore wind, solar, and nuclear power. However, when news about plans to block all new North Sea oil and gas developments started making the rounds, they spurred outrage in certain circles over potentially exposing the UK to more costly imports.

While many are of the opinion that the turn to renewables should be a gradual shift in investment rather than moving away from new oil and gas developments right away, a new analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) found that the production in 2030 would be 15 per cent or 30 terawatt-hours (TWh) lower if an end is put to new North Sea gas fields. This is perceived to be equivalent to an amount that could be produced by just one offshore wind farm.

Regarding the UK government’s alleged plans to ditch the climate and nature pledge, Friends of the Earth underscore this was part of a global effort agreed at the COP26 climate talks meant to channel much-needed money to developing and under-resourced countries to help tackle the impacts of climate breakdown and fund solutions with £3 billion earmarked for essential nature protection and restoration.

Rachel Kennerley, Climate Campaigner at Friends of the Earth, remarked: “Now it looks like Rishi Sunak wants to walk away from it. And from taking responsibility for some of the UK’s historic role in creating the climate crisis. If the government wants the UK to be seen as a climate leader, the bare minimum it needs to do is to keep its promise to some of the world’s most affected people and communities. The world is watching.”

Following a legal challenge by three organisations – Friends of the Earth, ClientEarth, and Good Law Project – in July 2022, the UK government was required by the High Court to publish a revised strategy, as the judge underlined the critical expert role of the CCC by stating its advice must be given “considerable weight.”

At the time, the High Court ruled that the net-zero strategy, which was supposed to set out plans to decarbonise the economy, did not meet the government’s obligations under the Climate Change Act to produce detailed climate policies that show how the UK’s legally binding carbon budgets would be met.

After going over the details of the revised plan – the Carbon Budget Delivery Plan, published on 30 March – with a fine-tooth comb, the lawyers from these three organisations claim that this also breaches the Climate Change Act, thus, they have made up their minds to take the UK government to court for the second time in under two years over – what they describe as – its “feeble and inadequate” strategy for tackling climate change and “weak” net-zero plans.

The three organisations have filed papers at the High Court requesting a judicial review, as they believe the UK failed to make amends, thus, they are unwilling to let the government off the hook now, as it looks set to miss almost all of its legally binding climate targets. They also emphasise that the UK’s decisions to greenlight new coal mines and oil fields are not in line with net-zero.

Katie de Kauwe, Lawyer, Friends of the Earth, commented: “The climate crisis is here. Record-breaking heatwaves, droughts, fires, and storms are racking up around the world. Including here in the UK – seriously risking our health, and our food and water security. And threatening the natural world. Firm action must be taken now to slash emissions.

“And to prevent the devastating impacts of climate breakdown from getting worse and more frequent… We showed the UK government’s previous net-zero strategy was unlawful before. Now we hope to do the same again.”

This new challenge comes after the CCC recently published a damning progress report, which has shaken confidence in the UK’s ability to reach its climate goals. The report says there are only credible plans for less than a fifth of the emissions reductions needed to meet the UK’s legally binding climate targets, which is down from last year’s assessment when just 39 per cent of plans were fit for purpose.

Laura Clarke, ClientEarth CEO, stated: “As the CCC has again reiterated, real action on emissions can happen with ‘no regrets’ policies that will also help struggling households. Measures such as making homes more energy efficient and investing in active and public transport can both reduce emissions and increase energy security for the benefit of present and future generations.”

Furthermore, Friends of the Earth, ClientEarth and Good Law Project argue that the UK’s revised climate action plan does not provide relevant information on the government’s assessment of the risk of the proposals and policies not being delivered and not meeting legally binding climate targets.

Simultaneously, the information contained within the plan confirms that many of the technologies being relied on to deliver substantial emissions savings are “high risk, raising serious questions about the government’s assumption that they will be delivered in full,” outlines the trio.

“The government’s new plan to reduce emissions is not fit for purpose. It relies heavily on unproven and high-risk technological fixes at the expense of near-term action – yet the government assumes that it will be delivered in full, despite these stark risks. People in the UK and globally need to see the UK take urgent, decisive climate action. But instead, we see hesitation and delay from the government and are almost certain to miss emissions reduction targets,” added Clarke.

For ClientEarth, this approach is “so clearly flawed that it is unlawful” and fails to comply with central provisions of the Climate Change Act, as there are no specifics on the level of risk posed by each policy, or even an overview of whether the plans for each sector are high, medium or low risk. 

On the other hand, ClientEarth highlights that reliance is placed on “nascent” technologies at an “extremely low starting point” – such as hydrogen, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and low-carbon aviation fuel, which are said to pose “inherent delivery risk, uncertainty and challenges,” though the precise extent of these risks and how they add up with other risks across the plans remains unclear.

“The climate crisis is already battering Britain and the world with record heatwaves, droughts and storms, and unless politicians take the action needed to slash emissions these impacts will become more severe and more frequent. The good news is that building a green economy won’t just slash emissions; it will also create new jobs, boost energy security and help tackle the soaring cost-of-living,” underlined de Kauwe.

Additionally, Friends of the Earth further notes that the government’s approach breaches its sustainable development duty, including by referencing an 8 per cent shortfall in meeting the UK’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), a key climate target adopted under the Paris Climate Agreement. The NDC requires that the UK achieves a 68 per cent reduction in its emissions by 2030, as compared to the 1990 baseline.

Emma Dearnaley, Good Law Project’s Legal Director, said: “We’re now in the crucial decade to stop irreversible damage from global heating, so it’s vital that we can all see if the government’s flagship plan for tackling the climate emergency is actually going to work. It is deeply alarming that the government’s new plan does not properly set out the risks of key policies missing these essential goals.

“What are they trying to hide? That is why we are pursuing legal action to demand transparency and help us and others to hold the government to account on its new climate change strategy.”

Each of the organisations is focusing on different aspects. ClientEarth’s legal challenge revolves around the government’s failure to pay attention to considerations that are related to the risks of its plans not delivering the emissions savings required to meet the UK’s climate targets while arguing that the government’s assumption about the full delivery of the projected emissions savings from its policies was not rational due to the government’s own assessment of delivery risks to key policies.

Friends of the Earth’s legal challenge is based on the grounds that the Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero acted “unlawfully” by not considering delivery risk in a lawful way, and that there was no legally sufficient basis for the conclusion that the proposals and policies “will enable” the carbon budgets to be met. Thus, the organisation claims that the Secretary of State unlawfully failed to put forward proposals that “must” contribute to sustainable development.

Good Law Project’s legal challenge focuses on the government’s refusal to include a proper assessment of the delivery risk associated with each of the policies and proposals in its Carbon Budget Delivery Plan, as the Secretary of State is required to publish sufficient information to allow meaningful scrutiny of the government’s net-zero policies.

Friends of the Earth is represented in this case by David Wolfe KC of Matrix Chambers, Catherine Dobson of 39 Essex Chambers, Nina Pindham of Cornerstone Barristers, and Rowan Smith at the law firm Leigh Day.

Meanwhile, a new report, titled Bright Futures: Decarbonising the UK’s Energy Workforce, from City & Guilds and Engineering UK outlines that Britain’s upskilling crisis, which is battering its energy sector, is damaging the country’s chances to hit net-zero goals. In line with this, four recommendations have been set out for employers, government and educators:

• Stronger policy frameworks that provide commitment and certainty to the market, enabling the industry to invest in skills with confidence
• Work locally and collaboratively to support levelling up and a just transition
• Invest in skills and lifelong learning
• Collaborate on skills, training and qualifications to support a robust skills pipeline

Nick Worpole, Associate Director EMEA at Spencer Ogden, points out: “There is a huge opportunity for workers in oil and gas industries to transfer their skills and experience to low carbon energy industries. But not all employers recognise this potential. And this is not only holding back candidates from moving across to roles in low-carbon energy, but it’s also preventing employers from recruiting the skilled people they need.

“As the need for talent in low carbon energy grows, employers in these industries need to change their perspective and recognise that if they’re to solve immediate and longer-term skills shortages, they need to take advantage of the huge wealth of knowledge, skills and experience that workers can transfer across from high carbon energy sectors. And they should offer opportunities for candidates to upskill and get key qualifications as part of their onboarding.”

This decade is seen as critical for the UK to move towards greener sources of energy production in the race against climate change, however, this report – which surveyed 1,000 energy sector workers, including 500 in high carbon energy industries (such as oil and gas), and 500 in low-carbon industries (such as wind, solar and nuclear) – shows that many of the country’s energy workforce is under the impression that the sector is not adequately prepared for a green future.

Therefore, the employees in the energy sector have pointed a finger towards a worrying lack of leadership and support in the drive to decarbonisation in the UK’s energy industry with just 42 per cent of them feeling that businesses are ready to meet the commitment to decarbonise the energy sector by 2035, and 42 per cent believing that the government is doing enough to support this change. 

Elena Magrini, Head of Global Research at Lightcast, underlined: “The public policy drive towards a low-carbon energy supply will have seismic impacts on the energy labour market. The key to adapting to these changes is to think less in terms of changes to industries and jobs, and much more in terms of skills.

“Skills are the building blocks of the labour market, and by seeking to understand the sorts of skills that are needed for a successful energy transition, we’ll be in a far better position to understand the training needed for new workers, and the upskilling that can be given to existing workers – particularly in the energy sector – to transfer to new energy sectors.”

While less than 46 per cent feel they personally have the skills required to support a zero-carbon energy system by 2035, 60 per cent of these working believe the move to decarbonise the power system will put their jobs at risk by 2025. In contrast, over half (55 per cent) of those working in high-carbon roles do not feel hopeful about the plans to reach decarbonisation by 2035.

Andy Moss, Chief Customer Officer at City & Guilds, elaborated: “To meet the skills needs of the sector, it’s vital we create opportunities for people to do just that. Yet, many employers have told us that uncertainty over the timing and scope of major energy projects inhibits their ability to invest in skills for the long term.

“We must unite to tackle this, with industry and government working in partnership to equip the energy workforce with the green skills required for the future. If we don’t act now, we’ll almost certainly lose the race to a more sustainable future.”

The report finds that employees are open to the transition with 91 per cent of them being willing to consider a role in low-carbon industries now or in the future. This seems like a silver lining as the energy jobs market is already undergoing seismic shifts with Lightcast data indicating that demand for low-carbon workers is skyrocketing.

This is hammered home by job postings for renewable energy managers growing by a staggering 1,114 per cent from 2019 to 2022 while job postings for oil and gas analysts have declined by 43.4 per cent in the same time period, rising a red flag, as it could become a potentially major barrier to the energy sector meeting its targets.

Although, to be fair, there is a myriad of barriers preventing people from moving to low-carbon roles, as this report shows that only a third (33 per cent) of energy workers think that they have the skills they need to succeed in meeting the future demands of the energy sector while a quarter of energy sector employees (26 per cent) claim to be unaware of the way to access training that will allow them to adapt to future changes in the industry.

In reaction to the report, Bob Donnelly, UK Managing Director at RelyOn Nutec UK, emphasised: “Until now, competing standards have created a significant cross-over in skills, and this will only be exacerbated by new technologies such as hydrogen and CCUS.

“To enhance transferrable skills from oil and gas and renewables, we’d urge the energy industry to focus on standardising its approach to training, making evaluating employee’s competency and skills easy and efficient. This should help plug the gaps that are already appearing.”