ICS: Protectionist policies heighten risks for shipping amid global geopolitical unrest

Protectionism represents a growing risk for the shipping decision-makers, driven by geopolitical instability, national energy security concerns, global and regional economic crises, and government-led manufacturing incentives favoring local production, a recent report shows.

The new report ICS Barometer Report 2023-2024 published by the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) illustrates and examines the key areas of concern for shipowners, managers, and the industry.

Areas of concern for respondents include the recent increase in geopolitical instability (which is seen as a risk multiplier as it impacts other factors), malicious physical attacks and cyber-attacks (by state and non-state actors), as well as updates to global and/or regional regulatory environments and availability of fuels and infrastructure driving decarbonization.

The report also states that the pandemic, energy and trade security efforts to manage geopolitical unrest and comply with decarbonization targets, and economic policies favoring local manufacturing and consumption have led to a significant and alarming rise in protectionism across the world.

As newly imposed or relaxed tariffs impact trade relationships, either splintering long-standing patterns or creating new ones, trade routes will continue to shift — with costly and complex consequences for shipping and the wider global economy, it was highlighted.

“We are in a period of profound transformation—marked by decarbonisation, heightened security risks, and evolving regulations. What this invaluable data driven perspective shows is that policy and clarity are key,” Emanuele Grimaldi, Chairman of the International Chamber of Shipping, commented.

This report tracks our industry’s progress through recent gains in confidence, while also noting key pressure points — such as the availability of public funding for green initiatives and the impact of market-based measures — which continue to require greater collaborative effort across industry leaders, government bodies, and international partners to address.”

The report further states that regulations remain the most significant factor impacting business operations — not just reinforcing the need for clear and sustainable regulatory oversight to establish a level playing field, but also boosting transparency for investors and other stakeholders as there are clearly defined metrics beyond those voluntarily adopted.

The solution to these challenges could be the creation of an official phased pathway to net zero, which is likely to reduce the fragmentation of approaches to decarbonizatio. So far, the approaches varied across regions and individual sectors depending on public policies and company ambitions.

In addition, findings from the report indicate that the availability of trained crew and personnel for certain roles remains an ongoing concern, with the potential to further impact operations as increased geopolitical instability affects recruitment and retention efforts over the coming years.

The report also draws attention to the alternative fuels market, where methanol and nuclear power have seen a significant rise in interest from industry respondents.

Methanol and liquefied natural gas (LNG) continue to dominate the global fleet makeup, with ammonia and hydrogen requiring more support to become viable options in this decade.

The emergence of extreme weather risks is identified as a – one to watch – area for the industry.

Meanwhile, the report has demonstrated the positive impact that improved clarity from governmental bodies such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) have had on the sector.

The comprehensive survey of over 100 global maritime industry leaders over a three-year period analyses year-on-year shifts in sentiment on pivotal issues influencing operations. It has tracked steadily rising confidence among maritime leaders in their ability to cope with challenging operating conditions.

“Understanding the key factors impacting maritime business operations is crucial for the industry’s resilience and growth, allowing us to implement strategies that are robust, sustainable and adaptive. The ICS Barometer offers year-on-year insights identifying emerging trends, allowing us to effectively track industry sentiment as we tackle challenges and respond proactively,” Rhett Hatcher, Chief Executive of the UK Chamber of Shipping added.

The insights from this report will also provide useful data and intelligence for the UK government as they develop their own investment and regulatory plans for the sector and we look forward to discussing these with them,” he concluded.