Fossil fuels’ 75% methane cuts by 2030 come with $170 billion price tag

As countries embrace tools and efforts aimed at slashing methane emissions, a new analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA) has hammered home the need for more action on this front since the full implementation of current pledges is not sufficient to bring forth the required emission reductions by 2030 in line with the Paris Agreement goals. Curbing the fossil fuel industry’s methane footprint by 75% this decade is expected to cost about $170 billion based on IEA’s calculations.

This spending for methane cuts is perceived to be less than 5% of the income generated by the industry in 2023. Even though methane emissions from the energy sector remained near a record high last year, the IEA’s Global Methane Tracker 2024 report shows that they could soon decrease thanks to the announced policies and regulations, as well as pledges made at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai.

While the IEA’s analysis shows a slight jump in the production and use of fossil fuels compared to 2022, which resulted in nearly 120 million tons of methane emissions in 2023, bioenergy was identified as the culprit behind another 10 million tons of such emissions, mostly from activities such as cooking. The report states that the top ten emitting countries produced around 80 million tons of methane emissions from fossil fuels in 2023, or two-thirds of the global total.

Furthermore, the largest global producer of oil and gas, the United States, is also the largest emitter of methane emissions from oil and gas operations, closely followed by Russia. On the other hand, the role of the highest emitter in the coal sector has been assigned to China. Therefore, global methane emissions seem nowhere near the level required to meet the international climate targets.

“A 75% cut in methane emissions from fossil fuels by 2030 is imperative to stop the planet from warming to a dangerous level. I am encouraged by the momentum we’ve seen in recent months, which our analysis shows could make an enormous and immediate difference in the world’s fight against climate change,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

“Now, we must focus on transforming commitments into action – while continuing to aim higher. Well known policies and existing technologies could reduce methane emissions from fossil fuels substantially. The IEA stands ready to help the energy sector meet its goals by deploying these measures, and we will continue to monitor progress – a key part of our wider efforts to ensure countries deliver on the energy promises they made at COP28.”

This might sound too ambitious, but efforts to cut methane emissions are expected to speed up in 2024 and beyond, especially since around 200 governments agreed to “substantially” reduce methane emissions by 2030 at COP28. In addition, Canada, the European Union, and the United States have announced important legislative proposals in this regard.

Another positive development stems from a commitment to methane abatement action made by 50 companies, representing more than 40% of global oil production, through the launch of the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter. The signatories have committed to net-zero operations by 2050 at the latest.

Additionally, more countries are joining the Global Methane Pledge, launched at COP26 by the European Union and the United States to cut global methane emissions by at least 30% compared to 2020 levels by 2030. One of the initiative’s latest signatories is Azerbaijan, which will host COP29.

The IEA’s new analysis found that methane emissions from fossil fuels can decrease by 50% by 2030 if all methane pledges made by countries and companies are implemented fully and on time. However, most pledges still lack concrete implementation plans.

Regarding fossil fuel emissions, the IEA’s new analysis found that around 40% of fossil fuel emissions could have been avoided at no net cost in 2023 because the value of the captured methane surpassed the cost of the abatement measure.

As argued in the report, tools that could help in this regard are state-of-the-art satellites, which are increasingly being used to help identify methane leaks. More specifically, 5 million tons of emissions were detected thanks to satellite imagery out of the substantial increase in major fossil fuel leaks noticed in 2023 compared with 2022.

Satellites should also make reporting more transparent. For example, the data collected by satellites could be used to fill in the existing gaps in disclosures to avoid discrepancies, such as the ones in the existing oil and gas companies’ reports, which indicate that methane emissions were 95% lower than the IEA’s estimate for 2023, while emission levels reported by countries were about 50% lower.

The Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) recently launched one such satellite – MethaneSAT, which will circle the Earth 15 times a day to measure changes in methane concentrations. The data should then be used for various purposes, including region comparisons.