ExxonMobil’s 2030 agenda: Fueling decarbonization with $30 billion while ramping up oil & gas and LNG output

U.S.-headquartered energy giant ExxonMobil has unveiled its new corporate plan up to 2030, expecting to deliver a growth potential of $20 billion in earnings and $30 billion in cash flow. During the next six years, the U.S. player has set its cap on upping its upstream production ante from its advantaged assets in the Permian, Guyana, and liquefied natural gas (LNG). The firm is also determined to pursue up to $30 billion in lower emissions investment opportunities.

While disclosing its expectation to deliver incremental growth potential of $20 billion in earnings and $30 billion in cash flow, ExxonMobil underlined that its earnings power substantially strengthened over the past five years, enabling it to generate more than $15 billion in earnings and more than $20 billion in cash flow versus 2019. The firm has delivered structural cost savings of more than $11 billion year-to-date compared to 2019.

According to the U.S. oil major, its cash flow has grown faster than that of any other integrated oil company (IOC) over the past three- and five-year periods, translating to shareholder value. The oil major plans to grow earnings at a CAGR of 10% and cash flow at 8%, with plans to achieve an additional $7 billion in structural cost savings by simplifying business processes, optimizing supply chains, enhancing maintenance turnaround processes, and modernizing information technology and data management systems.

Darren Woods, ExxonMobil’s Chairman and CEO, commented: “ExxonMobil has a unique set of highly valuable competitive advantages that equip us to do what few companies have ever done – create world-scale solutions to society’s biggest challenges, decade after decade.

“Our steadfast commitment to strengthening these advantages, including an unwavering investment in technology, has led to a history of innovative solutions that meet society’s critical needs, reduce costs, and grow high-value products. That’s a formula for profitable growth and shareholder value through and beyond 2030 – no matter the pace and scale of the energy transition – that truly puts us in a league of our own.”

While explaining that its capital allocation approach prioritizes competitively advantaged, high-return, low-cost-of-supply investments, the U.S. player expects cash capital expenditures to be in the range of $27 to $29 billion in 2025, reflecting the first full year of Pioneer in the portfolio and investment to build new businesses with base capex remaining flat.

The base capex is anticipated to be consistent during the 2026–2030 period, with the reinvestment rate relative to expected cash flow declining by 10%. Cash flow and earnings growth are projected to generate a further $165 billion in surplus cash, driving increased shareholder distributions.

ExxonMobil underscores that it has increased its annual dividend per share for 42 consecutive years and recently increased its quarterly dividend by 4 cents per share effective this quarter. The company continues to expect to repurchase shares at a $20 billion annual pace in 2025 and plans a further $20 billion of share repurchases in 2026, assuming reasonable market conditions.

Woods added: “Through 2030, we plan to deploy about $140 billion to major projects and the Permian Basin development program. We expect this capital to generate returns of more than 30% over the life of the investments.

“Strong investment returns have driven 42 consecutive years of annual dividend growth, a claim only 4% of the S&P 500 can make. This is why, when we list our capital allocation priorities, investing in accretive growth always comes first.”

Moreover, ExxonMobil is set on strengthening its Upstream asset portfolio by combining a lower cost of supply and higher returns to deliver an additional $9 billion in annual earnings potential – more than 50% higher than in 2024 – by 2030, at a 2024 dollar real Brent price of $65 per barrel, a real Henry Hub price of $3 per mmbtu, and a real TTF price of $6.50 per mmbtu.

Thanks to the Pioneer acquisition, the firm reached its target of having over 50% of its total production from assets in the Permian, Guyana, and LNG three years earlier than planned. Before the end of the decade, more than 60% of production is expected to come from these assets, which are set to grow by an additional 1.2 million oil-equivalent barrels per day (Moebd).

This will allow total production to hit 5.4 Moebd by 2030, even as operated emissions intensity goes down 40-50% versus 2016. ExxonMobil also announced plans for two additional developments in Guyana, Hammerhead and Longtail, bringing the total number of developments to eight by 2030.

As a result, the total production capacity in Guyana, on an investment basis, is expected to reach 1.7 million barrels per day, with gross production growing to 1.3 million barrels per day by 2030. The firm has four LNG projects under development and expects to surpass 40 million metric tons per annum of LNG sales by 2030.

These projects are anticipated to further expand the U.S. giant’s global LNG footprint and market access, with the first LNG sales from the Golden Pass development in the United States and Qatar’s North Field East expansion project near the end of 2025. The company also targets final investment decisions at Papua New Guinea’s Papua project in 2025 and Mozambique’s Rovuma development in 2026.

While underlining that its Product Solutions business is forecast to grow annual earnings potential by an additional $8 billion by 2030, at average 2010-2019 margins, the company reveals plans to start up six projects in 2025, as many as in the prior five years combined. ExxonMobil is pursuing up to $30 billion of low-emission opportunities between 2025 and 2030, with almost 65% spent on reducing emissions for third-party customers.

Furthermore, the oil major elaborates that the execution of these opportunities is contingent on the right policy and regulation alongside continued technology and market development since the firm is pacing investments in new ventures to balance opportunities and risks as markets develop.

ExxonMobil’s Low Carbon Solutions business focuses on three primary verticals: carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen, and lithium. The company claims to be developing “the world’s first large-scale carbon capture and storage system,“ which includes a high-capacity CO₂ pipeline network connecting emitters from many industries to permanent subsurface storage capacity throughout the U.S. Gulf Coast.

ExxonMobil expects its low-carbon hydrogen facility in Baytown to be the world’s largest, producing up to 1 billion cubic feet of virtually carbon-free hydrogen per day with about 98% of the CO₂ captured and stored. Some of the hydrogen will be used to produce over a million metric tons per year of low-carbon ammonia.

The U.S. player is eyeing a final investment decision in 2025 with the potential to start operations in 2029. The firm is also developing new technologies to reduce the cost of emission reductions, which it sees as the only way to achieve deployment at scale. Given supportive policy and growing market interest, the company expects its Low Carbon Solutions business to grow earnings contributions by $2 billion in 2030 versus 2024.

ExxonMobil announced its 2030 scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emission-reduction plans for operated assets, compared to 2016 levels, aiming to achieve a 20-30% cut in corporate-wide greenhouse gas intensity; a 40-50% reduction in greenhouse gas intensity of upstream operations; a 70-80% reduction in corporate-wide methane intensity; and a 60-70% reduction in corporate-wide flaring intensity.

The U.S. oil major aims to achieve net-zero scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions from its operated assets by 2050, with technological advancements and the support of “clear and consistent” government policies.

Recently, TechnipFMC placed the first equipment part of a subsea production system in place for ExxonMobil’s oil development at the Stabroek block off the coast of Guyana.