Europe unlikely to meet its 2030 hydrogen production targets, report says

Less than 20% of the EU’s planned hydrogen project pipeline is expected to be realized by 2030 without urgently addressing critical points that create a widening gap between ambition and reality in Europe’s hydrogen sector, according to the latest report from energy market research and consultancy firm Westwood Global Energy.

Westwood’s research indicates that only 17% (less than a fifth) of the EU’s hydrogen pipeline may come online by 2030 without addressing policy frameworks, funding mechanisms, and demand-side mandates.

Therefore, Europe is unlikely to meet its 2030 hydrogen production targets despite significant ambitions and funding commitments, Westwood reports in the new white paper titled ‘Europe’s Hydrogen Future: How Much Is Realistically Achievable?’.

Due to regulatory delays, elevated costs, and weak demand weighing heavily on progress, 23 European projects totaling 29.2 GW already stalled or canceled by the end of 2024.

Westwood observed a similar trend in the UK market, estimating a potential delivery range of just 1% to 24% of its pipeline by 2030, underlining the sizable policy, funding, and mandate shortfall.

Jun Sasamura, Hydrogen Manager at Westwood, said: “The gap between ambition and reality in Europe’s hydrogen sector is widening. While targets are necessary, they will remain out of reach unless the policy landscape evolves. For the UK in particular, without sharper coordination and a clearer demand-side focussed approach, there is a potential risk of falling behind.”

Building on the Hydrogen Project Certainty Assessment tool, Westwood’s research also outlines a best-case scenario for the market, where 70% of the current EU pipeline could materialize if planned frameworks are effectively developed and implemented.

In this scenario, the EU could reach its 2030 production targets, underscoring the importance of effective progress, the firm said.

David Linden, Head of Energy Transition at Westwood, commented: “While it is easy to focus on the challenges, we should acknowledge that delivering 17% (12 GW(LHV)) of the EU’s pipeline still represents substantial progress. European governments are increasingly adopting a more realistic perspective on hydrogen’s role in the economy. Governments must now act decisively on the three critical areas that we have identified to ensure continued progress.”

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