DNV: Energy-saving technologies crucial to reduce maritime emissions until carbon-neutral fuels become viable

Faced with challenges such as short supplies of carbon-neutral fuels, the shipping industry needs to explore every option for reducing fuel consumption in order to reach the 2030 decarbonization goal of 20% emissions reductions set by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), Norwegian classification society DNV highlights in the latest Maritime Forecast to 2050 report.

The report points out that prioritizing the development and use of technologies for significant energy savings is crucial for lowering shipping emissions until carbon-neutral fuels become viable.

To reach IMO’s 2030 decarbonization goals shipping will need between 7 and 48 Mtoe of carbon-neutral fuels. However, with the global cross-sector production of carbon-neutral fuels expected to reach only between 44 and 63 Mtoe by 2030, it will be nearly impossible for the shipping industry to secure its required share, leaving shipowners and managers to explore every option to reduce fuel consumption, DNV explains.

In the eighth edition of its Maritime Forecast to 2050, DNV provides an updated outlook on regulations, drivers, technologies, and fuels needed for maritime decarbonization, including four scenarios exploring conditions that could accelerate the adoption of specific fuels and technologies by 2050.

The report emphasizes that regardless of which direction the industry’s decarbonization journey takes, it will come at a significant cost. The four simulated scenarios project the cost increases per transport work; with estimates ranging from 69-75% for bulk carriers, 70-86% for tankers, and 91-112% for container vessels.

Eirik Ovrum, Principal Consultant and Lead Author of Maritime Forecast to 2050, notes that the analysis indicates that decarbonizing shipping could double the cost of transporting goods by containers, prompting shipowners to develop and execute strategic fleet management plans to remain competitive.

Arguing that the reduction of energy losses is the most straightforward way for the global fleet to cut emissions, the analysis shows that operational and technical energy efficiency measures can reduce fuel consumption by between 4 and 16% by 2030. Reducing energy consumption by 16% for the world fleet would save 40 Mt of fuel and 120 MtCO2 emissions, which would be equivalent to operating the 55,000 smallest ships or the 2,500 largest ships with carbon-neutral fuel, DNV states.

Furthermore, the report highlights onboard carbon capture (OCC) as potentially the most effective way to decarbonize as it enables the continued use of conventional fuels and technologies but with significant development of CO2 handling infrastructure.

Solutions like shore power and batteries which can reduce reliance on costly carbon-neutral fuels are also highlighted as it is estimated that shore power can cut the 7% of total energy consumption that ships use in ports by replacing onboard fossil fuel-generated electricity.

Finally, the report emphasizes the increasingly important role of digitalization in complementing operational and technical energy efficiency measures. Digital verification tools are also pointed out as crucial for establishing an infrastructure of trust, fostering industry-wide collaboration, and facilitating new contractual arrangements, incentivizing energy savings.

Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, DNV Maritime CEO, said: “While we are currently witnessing a slowdown of decarbonization in shipping, we are entering an era of unprecedented technological exploration that will drive progress forward. With carbon-neutral fuels in short supply, smart decision-making and strategic investments today are crucial to lay the foundations for future emissions reductions. Prioritizing energy efficiency, leveraging technological solutions, and embracing digitalization are key steps towards reducing the extra cost burden and achieving our decarbonization goals.”