Coming to grips with security risks: Germany backs project for keeping critical subsea infrastructure out of harm’s way

Given the worldwide rise in threats to energy and other underwater industries’ infrastructure such as offshore installations, pipelines, and cables, many countries, especially in Europe, have been upping their security ante to prevent further attacks. To this end, a project, dedicated to enhancing maritime situational awareness around critical subsea infrastructures with advanced big data and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, has received a €2.4 million federal grant from Germany. Close collaboration has been pinpointed as a key to the success of the project and the handling of protection challenges.

The events that took place over the past couple of years have shaken the foundations of the existing world order, eating away at its fabric and leaving many in fear of seeing the freedoms and human rights they currently enjoy being stripped away and supplanted by restrictions, discrimination, and oppression. The ongoing and growing geopolitical tensions also play a part in endangering subsea infrastructure, especially in certain hotspots such as the Middle East, where Iran has vowed to retaliate over Israel’s alleged assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’ political wing, which is not the same as the military wing of the Palestinian nationalist organization, the Qassam Brigades.

The high-stakes escalation could spread to the neighboring countries and engulf the entire Middle East into ragging battles for supremacy, leaving countless casualties in its wake. The red flag this situation is raising needs to be handled with utmost care to navigate the dangers that lie in wait and prevent further bloodshed and armed conflict by tackling the root cause of the issue. Since the Gaza situation turned into a full-blown crisis, Tehran has already retaliated to one of Israel’s previous moves related to an attack on Iran’s embassy in Damascus, Syria.

A close eye needs to be kept on the volatile situation in the Middle East, which requires diplomacy, tact, and great skill to be employed in finding a resolution and ending the Israel-Gaza conflict with a two-state solution that bears all the hallmarks of a lasting peace recipe. However, this is not the only peril-filled region in the world, as many other political and military conflicts keep the global powers occupied, as the world holds its breath to see what will come next. One of the closely watched conflicts is the one in Ukraine, which turned Russia into a pariah throughout the Western world.

Even though the risk of cyberattacks existed long before the Ukraine crisis hit in 2022, this is still one of the main growing geopolitical factors, as illustrated by multiple attacks on subsea infrastructure across Europe. The first major incidents came in September 2022, when four gas leaks were found on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, two in Sweden’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and two in the Danish territory.

Once the Norwegian and Swedish seismic institutes had confirmed that underwater blasts preceded the leaks, European authorities said that the incident might stem from “deliberate actions.” In July 2023, Germany, together with Sweden and Denmark, revealed in a letter to the UN Security Council that it had found traces of subsea explosives in samples taken from a yacht that might have been used to transport the explosives, which damaged the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea. However, Sweden and Denmark have since closed their investigations into the incident.

The threats to subsea energy infrastructure in Europe did not end after North Stream pipelines were damaged, as confirmed by a rapture of the Balticconnector gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia in early October 2023. As a result, the pipeline was shut down after seismic signals were recorded in its vicinity, indicating a possible explosion had occurred around the time a pressure drop was observed approximately 40 kilometers north of Paldiski, Estonia, close to where the Balticconnector pipeline crosses the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.

Estonia’s Prime Minister saw a connection between the incidents that caused damage to the Balticconnector gas pipeline and telecom cables between Estonia, Finland, and Sweden. These and similar interference and sabotage risks have prompted countries to bond around ways to improve awareness about critical underwater infrastructure through advanced big data, AI, and other technological marvels.

Some of the steps taken to address the potential perils that lie in wait include the joint exercise in the Baltic Sea region of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) – a multilateral defense cooperation framework led by Great Britain and formed by ten countries: the Netherlands, Iceland, Great Britain, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, and Estonia – to strengthen the capability for the surveillance and protection of subsea infrastructure to curb threats.

In April 2024, six North Sea countries – Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Norway, the UK, and Denmark –  took steps to raise the cooperation bar on the security of energy and telecommunications underwater infrastructure by signing off on a joint declaration to cooperate on the protection of critical subsea energy and telecommunication infrastructure across the North Sea.

This was followed by a similar declaration, inked by eight Baltic Sea countries, only a day later, to pool resources on safeguarding critical offshore energy infrastructure in the region. These eight countries, which joined forces to fortify offshore and subsea infrastructure against activities that may jeopardize energy assets and supply, are Lithuania, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Poland, and Sweden.

The latest development in the wave of efforts being undertaken to deter possible malign activities against critical subsea infrastructure within the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the EU and strengthen Europe’s resilience against new forms of hybrid and cyber warfare comes from the German Federal Ministry of Digital and Transport, which co-funded north.io’s €3.5 million Argus big data project to protect critical subsea Infrastructure through the mFUND innovation initiative.

In the wake of a recent string of incidents that underscored the vulnerability of offshore infrastructure, the Argus project, which began on June 1 and is due to run for two years, is perceived to be a step in the right direction to revolutionize the protection of critical underwater infrastructure (CUI) through the use of advanced big data and AI technologies, as such protection is seen as a key to global security and economic stability. This project is led by north.io in collaboration with the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel and Subsea Europe Services.

Jann Wendt, CEO of north.io, commented: “We are delighted to be leading the Argus project and taking a significant step forward in protecting critical underwater infrastructure. This funding not only recognizes our commitment to innovation, but also shows the need for new approaches in ocean data management and analytics based on AI and big data technologies. Our collaboration with highly professional partners will pave the way for groundbreaking advances in maritime safety, environmental protection and the successful expansion of offshore renewables.”

Furthermore, other stakeholders, such as the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH), the Federal Police, and the German Navy, are set to contribute their expertise in maritime operations, law enforcement, and hydrographic data to ensure the project’s success. Currently, north.io is in charge of overseeing the coordination of the consortium, designing and providing the ocean data management platform, and spearheading the development of the track-planning module and various AI models.

Sören Themann, CEO of Subsea Europe Services, stated: “As part of the Argus project, our task is to test the already developed track planning software that shows the autonomous systems where to go. Our significant focus on R&D for intelligent uncrewed surface and subsea platforms gives us the perfect technical foundation to deliver a functional, user-friendly prototype.”

On the other hand, GEOMAR will focus on the AI-assisted analysis of image data from autonomous underwater vehicles and satellites, and Subsea Europe Services will test the track-planning module in practice and gather image and measurement data. The recently secured €2.4 million grant for Argus is part of the mFUND innovation initiative and contributes to the total project cost of €3.5 million. 

Dr. Volker Wissing, Germany’s Federal Minister for Digital and Transport, emphasized the urgency and relevance of the Argus project by saying: “Protecting critical submarine infrastructure is of crucial importance. Submarine cables and pipelines play an essential role for communication, energy supply and the exchange of digital services.

“Their security ensures not only uninterrupted essential services, it also protects against potential security threats and economic losses that could result from damage or sabotage. The ‘Argus’ project can make a major contribution to enhancing security. It can detect possible attacks in time by comparing the collected data with the situation under water at the time.”

The Argus project will use an enhanced version of the TrueOcean platform of north.io – said to be the first time an ocean big data technology is available that builds the basis for working and analyzing the amounts of underwater sensor data provided by multibeam, side scan sonar, or hydrophones – in response to the lack of highly scalable technological approaches for rapid and systematic inspection of underwater infrastructure.

Integrating underwater data into the situational picture, the project is envisioned to work with raw ocean sensor data in tremendous amounts, unlike existing approaches that use mainly satellite and AIS data. Argus not only enhances the situational picture with underwater big data from a multitude of sensors but also develops a system for taking immediate action upon detection.

Professor Helge Hegewald, President of the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH), noted: “The Argus project presents a unique and innovative approach to improving maritime safety. It combines advanced AI technologies with comprehensive data integration. The expertise of the BSH meets technological innovation with the aim of creating a standardised situational picture for authorities and security agencies.”

Therefore, Argus aims to establish an automated, data-driven system for monitoring critical underwater infrastructure, integrating a multitude of underwater sensors on a new generation of ocean data management platform; enhanced risk identification by cross-referencing anomalies with critical underwater infrastructure locations to provide a more accurate assessment of potential threats; reduce the response time from detecting threats to action; and offer a robust information base to improve strategic planning and decision-making in critical underwater infrastructure security areas.

In a bid to turn these objectives into reality, the project’s first phase involves developing a new generation of an ocean data management platform featuring several AI-powered tools for reliable detection and assessment of anomalies; efficient, automated monitoring of critical underwater infrastructure and task planning for autonomous systems; physics AI-based prediction and modeling of sound velocity in underwater environments; and highly automated processing of hydroacoustic data and change detection.

Dr. Timm Schoening, Head of Data Science Unit at GEOMAR, underlined: “We at GEOMAR are proud to contribute our marine data science expertise to the development and training of artificial intelligence for automated analysis and risk assessment of related ship movements in the North and Baltic Seas. These initiatives are crucial to ensure and improve the safety of our underwater infrastructures.”

While highlighting the project’s potential to set a new standard in maritime security, north.io explained that a signal is sent to a pre-positioned autonomous underwater or surface vehicle as soon as potential anomalies are detected near underwater infrastructure. Afterward, the software directs the vehicle to investigate the situation at the critical subsea infrastructure and provide the highest resolution underwater datasets. Portrayed as a rapid response to potential threats, this approach is described as significantly improving the protection of critical subsea infrastructure.

In light of this, north.io is adamant that Argus will provide the foundation for automated, data-driven monitoring and threat assessment of CUI, integrating a multitude of underwater sensors as well as satellite and vessel positioning data with critical infrastructure locations on a new generation ocean data management platform, which will be a central tool for monitoring anomalies, conducting systematic risk assessments, and strategically inspecting potential threats.

Dr. Sebastian Bruns from the Institute for Security Policy at the University of Kiel (ISPK), underscored: “Geospatial and AI experts such as north.io play a central role in the advancement of maritime security. Currently, there is no strategy for rapid, systematic inspection of underwater critical infrastructure, with data collection and processing being manual, time-consuming and inefficient.

“By partnering with organisations like GEOMAR and Subsea Europe Services GmbH, or even the German Navy, they are strengthening Germany’s ability to protect vital assets and ensure future maritime security. By integrating artificial intelligence and big data analytics, Germany’s situational awareness and decision-making capabilities will be significantly improved, creating a robust framework for critical infrastructure protection.”

Many countries around the globe are determined to accelerate the energy transition journey, however, Europe has been at the forefront of such endeavors for a long time. This is illustrated by the European Commission (EC), which hand-picked multiple hybrid interconnector projects in the North Sea and Baltic Sea last year among the proposed cross-border energy infrastructure projects, driving the EU’s climate and net zero aspirations by bringing more offshore wind power into play to unlock green electricity.

Furthermore, the European Commission sees the electricity transmission and distribution grids as “the missing links of the clean energy transition.” Many countries stand to gain from the EU’s quest to step up its clean energy power generation, including but not limited to Denmark, Germany,  Belgium, Latvia, and Estonia. Three large hybrid interconnector projects were designated as projects of common interest last year and placed into the basket with other infrastructure projects of particular importance, allowing them to seek financial support from the EU.

One of these three offshore hybrid interconnectors in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, which is expected to future-proof the EU’s energy sector with renewables, is TritonLink – expected to link the high-voltage grids in Belgium and Denmark through two energy islands in the North Sea.

The other two are the Bornholm Energy Island (BEI) project between Denmark and Germany in the Baltic Sea – anticipated to facilitate the connection of at least 3 GW of offshore wind generation capacity to the grid by the early 2030s; and Elwind joint Estonian-Latvian state-run cross-border offshore wind project, which aims to up the green energy production ante and fortify interstate electricity connectivity.

In April 2024, Viking Link, currently seen as the world’s largest interconnector in operation, was officially inaugurated to connect the UK and Denmark. Many green electricity superhighway projects are being pursued, including the $3.2 billion Eastern Green Link 1 (EGL1) project, the $5 billion Eastern Green Link 2 (EGL2) project, the Celtic Interconnector, etc.

One of the biggest projects, which aims to secure more carbon-free power for Europe, is the proposed multibillion-dollar 6 GW North Atlantic Transmission One–Link (NATO-L), which entails a high-voltage direct current (HVDC) set of subsea cables across the Atlantic to link North America and Western Europe.

The development of this project is expected to take 10-15 years due to the grand scale of the undertaking and the fact that it is just starting to take its first baby steps in establishing consensus around its vision and attracting funding. Should all go well, enabling NATO-L to become operational, its founders believe it will allow NATO to secure a physical link between its two blocks and bolster energy security amongst its members on both sides of the Atlantic.

The global energy industry’s wheel of fortune keeps spinning, pushed by multiple competing factors from climate change to politics, enabling some regions to increasingly roll the dice on cleaner sources of supply, as others stubbornly stick to what they have always known, too mired in the old ways of doing things to see any beacons of lights in combining the old with the new to better respond to the challenges of today instead of clinging to the past to stop from sinking into the unknown.

This, in turn, heightens the risk of being derailed by the sunk cost fallacy, which is creeping into a wide spectrum of major financial energy decisions in the ongoing war between fossil fuels on one side and green and clean fuels on another. With the fossil fuel era still in effect, Big Oil’s power is not likely to diminish anytime soon, especially in the wake of anticipated population growth, which puts an even greater emphasis on the need for collaborations, spanning different sectors and geographies, in the emerging energy security narrative and a highly complex and integrated new energy paradigm.

The global governments’ investments in energy infrastructure are spotlighting the shift to low-carbon electrified, digitalized, and decentralized energy systems. Does the evolving nature of energy security intricacies in the era of tectonic shifts in geopolitics, defense, and growing threats to basic human rights and freedoms need to be about simply picking fossil fuels or green alternatives? Could all these sources not be effectively entwined to shore up supplies and stabilize markets?

For some, the possibility of the coexistence of oil & gas, LNG, and renewables ignites a glimmer of hope that further innovation will speed up the decarbonization game and enable a balancing act to tackle the energy trilemma challenges.

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