Clarkson: Dry Bulk Orders Spiraling Down

In the last four months dry bulk orders have fallen to 0.4 million dwt per month, the lowest level since the 1990s, according to the latest market review released by Clarkson Research.

“This is a massive 98% reduction from the 23 million dwt peak in orders in December 2007, and probably the sharpest decline in recent decades. Not really a surprise in a market where Capesize bulkers are struggling to earn USD 4,000/day, but a timely relief to investors with ships on the orderbook,” said Dr Martin Stopford, President of Clarkson Research Services Limited.

The spectacular run of dry bulk investment which kicked off in early 2003 has finally ended. Then China’s imports were growing at 27% a year, a big difference from the 3% growth in 2014.

Clarksons’ data shows that during the last decade, 724 million dwt of new bulkers have been ordered, around 70m dwt/year. On average that was about 20 million dwt/year during the previous decade.

“The collapse in bulkcarrier investment is a particular problem for shipyards. Many builders in China and Japan surfed the wave of bulkcarrier investment and bulkers still account for around half of tonnage on order globally. In today’s sluggish world economy, that is going to be a difficult gap to fill. The fact that bulker prices are around 5% down this year, and ordering has virtually stopped tells its own story,” Stopford added.

Aside to downturn in newbuild order books, the activity on the demolition market is off to a good start in 2015 which is expected to bring more balance to supply-demand ratio and eventually higher rates.