Biden vs Trump: Will energy policy or tectonic shifts in democracy and geopolitics decide winner of potential 2024 showdown?

The stage seems to be almost set for another Joe Biden versus Donald Trump round during the upcoming 2024 elections but stakes are much higher this time around. These elections will be taking place against a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions and global security trials and tribulations, especially in certain hotspots such as Ukraine-Russia, Israel-Gaza, and China-Taiwan pairings along with the wider Middle East region and even the Balkans. This is topped off with climate woes and energy transition challenges, which are another well-known bone of contention between the two presidential candidates. Tackling all these issues will be a tricky business for the one who gets the next term in the Oval Office.

Election year, which has arrived once again, is a much dreaded time for some while others have been anticipating it for the past four years. The partisan conflict between Democrats and Republicans is nothing new, but the divide between the two parties tends to grow even bigger when election time approaches. It is still far too early to tell which way the wind will blow by the time the 2024 elections are over, but the current trends show that other candidates are making their pitch under the shadow of the two players – President Biden and former President Trump – who engaged in a face-off in 2020.

Among other things, 2023 will be remembered due to the BRICS expansion, which showcased the global south’s increasing disillusionment with the current international system’s constellation. These sentiments enabled BRICS to position itself as a counterweight to Western powers in a bid to chart a new way forward on the global stage. As a result, this is yet another issue that the incoming U.S. president will need to handle while coming to grips and bridging the widening gap in public opinion over foreign policy and certain developments, such as the bloodshed the Ukraine and Israel-Gaza crises have brought and the steps taken in response.

Within its forecasts for 2024, the Financial Times’ team predicted that the 2024 elections would be a very close run between Biden and Trump, should the latter overcome the legal hurdles in Colorado and Maine. While Biden is expected to emerge as a winner, this will be “more because a narrow majority will be rejecting Trump than endorsing a Biden second term,” according to FT’s predictions. Based on a recent national study by the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, the number of Americans endorsing policies that could challenge the U.S. Constitution is growing, even as a majority express a preference for democracy over other forms of governance.

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While trying to gauge sentiments as the 2024 presidential race looms, the study showed that 52% plan to vote for Biden and 48% for Trump in a head-to-head race between the duo, mirroring 2020 outcomes. The respondents reported similarly negative views of both candidates, with 40% approving and 50% disapproving of Biden’s job performance, and 39% approving and 53% disapproving of Trump. 

These elections may shape up to be a referendum on a lot of things, including green energy and democracy as we understand it today, which was hammered home by a staggering majority of both Biden (70%) and Trump (68%) voters, who believed electing officials from the opposite party would result in lasting harm to the U.S. with roughly half – 52% Biden voters, 47% Trump voters – viewing those who supported the other party as threats to the American way of life.

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Larry J. Sabato, Director of the Center for Politics, commented: “We stand on the precipice of a developing emergency. Dislike of the other side combined with a pervasive disregard for the fundamental freedoms contained in the U.S. Constitution poses a grave threat. If these sentiments go unchecked and grow, our nation could face disastrous division.”

Following these elections, some may decide to play with fire which will get others burned, as about 40% of both groups – 41% Biden voters, 38% Trump voters – at least somewhat operate under the impression that the other side has become so extreme that it is acceptable to use violence to prevent them from achieving their goals.

The red flag is raised further by a significant share of respondents who expressed doubts about both the future of democracy and even the U.S. as it is currently composed, with roughly two in five (41%), which are leaning towards Trump in 2024, somewhat agreeing with the idea of red states seceding from the union to form their own separate country, while 30% of Biden supporters expressed a similar sentiment, albeit for blue states.

In addition, nearly one-third (31%) of Trump supporters and about a quarter (24%) of Biden supporters at least somewhat agree that democracy is no longer a viable system and that the country should explore alternative forms of government to ensure stability and progress.

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Those who intend to vote for Biden were likelier than Trump voters to express support for limiting certain rights, including freedom of speech to safeguard the feelings and safety of marginalized groups; regulation of discriminatory views; firearms control; addressing income inequality by redistributing all wealth over a certain limit; and mandating policies requiring corporations to ensure diversity at all levels of leadership.

On the other hand, those leaning toward Trump in the upcoming elections were more likely to prefer the enactment of laws requiring citizens to show respect for national symbols and leaders; suspending elections in times of crisis; restricting the expression of views deemed unpatriotic or disloyal; giving the president the authority to bypass Congress; and limit demonstrations and protests that the government deems potentially disruptive to public order.

The Republicans are currently leaning heavily on propagating policies that will stop the flow of immigration as their trump card for the 2024 election campaign. This strategy recently worked like a charm for some right-wing politicians.

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Larry Schack, Co-founder of Project Home Fire, underlined: “The deep divisions within the American electorate are strikingly apparent across various dimensions, from policy positions to priorities and values. What is most concerning about this study is the mainstream acceptance of authoritarian means to achieve preferred political outcomes.

“This trend is no longer limited to a specific individual or a substantial minority; it now extends to both Biden and Trump voters, indicating a willingness to bypass democratic norms in pursuit of their respective goals.”

Age is just a number one can chalk up to experience if people are healthy, but many are trying to use Biden’s age as a weapon against his reelection. However, they seem to be ignoring the big elephant in the room, since the age difference between the current U.S. president and the former one is minuscule, as Trump is a mere three years younger than Biden. Thus, this is certainly nowhere near as big an issue as some are portraying it to be.

However, other differences in their views and politics are of much greater concern. One of the crucial ones for reaching the Paris Agreement goals lies in their stance on climate and energy policies. There is no need for an in-depth analysis of Trump’s energy policy and love affair with the fossil fuels industry as his record speaks for itself. The same goes for Biden since he has always been a firm supporter of clean energy.

Back in 2017, when Trump decided to issue an executive order directing the Environmental Protection Agency to suspend, revise, or rescind four actions related to the Clean Power Plan, he said that these actions were being taken to “lift the restrictions on American energy” and allow – what he deemed as – wealth to pour into the U.S. communities. He also signed an executive order focused on overturning former President Barack Obama’s ban on oil and gas activity and opening more areas in the U.S. for offshore oil and gas exploration, which was deemed illegal and invalid by a federal judge in Alaska in late March 2019.

If he manages to get the upper hand in the elections and enter the White House again, Trump will do his utmost to roll back all, or at least the vast majority, of Biden’s clean energy policies, gutting the green agenda in the process. Trump’s team is likely to leave no stone unturned to put an end to Bidenomics and go after a significant number of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) policies. Trump will probably set out to reverse much of Biden’s regulatory and permitting agenda, encompassing environmental regulations, which sought to curtail coal, oil, and gas industries while boosting renewables.

Moreover, Trump’s new energy policies are likely to be in line with his America First Energy Plan, which ignored what many consider to be the biggest untapped and most job-productive American energy resources, such as sun and wind power along with energy efficiency. If Trump comes back to the Oval Office the expansion of fossil fuel production will experience a comeback while another withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, just like the one he initiated when he was in power, may be on the cards.

A blueprint for the future, called Project 2025, has already been crafted, aiming to throw a spanner in the efforts to combat climate change and bring about a sustainable energy future, curb environmental agencies’ budgets, and even oust employees. If a Republican comes into power in the U.S., this plan is expected to change not only the energy landscape but also the current state of affairs in the nation, as its tentacles will push to reach almost every aspect of the land of the free, reshaping it in Republicans’ image.

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Furthermore, the plan is anticipated to be used as the new administration’s gospel to halt the expansion of the wind and solar energies’ share in the electrical grid, cut funding for the Environmental Protection Agency’s environmental justice office, take the power away from the Energy Department’s renewable energy offices by curtailing or even shutting them down, stop states from following in California’s footsteps and enacting car pollution standards; and ensure that more regulation of polluting industries will be put into Republican state officials’ hands.

Paul Dans, Director of Project 2025 at the Heritage Foundation, emphasized: “Project 2025 is not a white paper. We are not tinkering at the edges. We are writing a battle plan, and we are marshaling our forces. Never before has the whole conservative movement banded together to systematically prepare to take power day one and deconstruct the administrative state.”

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Unlike Trump and the Republicans, Biden and Democrats will continue to prioritize environmental protection and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions while burning the candle at both ends to push clean energy deployment forward. One of Biden’s energy crown jewels is the offshore wind industry with a goal of achieving 30 GW by 2030. During one of Offshore Energy’s previous interviews, the U.S. offshore wind sector was flagged for growth. Several developments in the sector have come to light over the past week.

Our sibling site, offshoreWIND.biz, recently reported on the delivery of the first power to the New England grid in Massachusetts from the Vineyard Wind offshore wind project, which is being developed by Avangrid Renewables and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP). The week also brought terminations into play within the offshore wind ecosystem in the U.S. after arrangements were made to end the Offshore Wind Renewable Energy Certificate (OREC) agreement for the 1,260 MW Empire Wind 2 offshore wind project in New York. As a result, multiple contracts were canceled.

Read more:

• 📎806 MW Vineyard Wind 1 Offshore Wind Farm Delivers First Power
• 📎BP and Equinor Terminate Empire Wind 2 Offtake Agreement, Await ‘New Offtake Opportunities’
• 📎Empire Wind 2 Partners Cancel USD 250 Million Offshore Substation Contract
• 📎Sif Removes Empire Wind 2 from Order Book

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Following brushes with the law due to more than one lawsuit, the controversial oil and gas Lease Sale 261 for acreage in federal waters in the Gulf of Mexico was held in December 2023. This lease sale gathered close to a whopping $382.2 million in high bids, which is nothing to sneeze at, considering this is the largest amount such a lease sale has collected in almost a decade or rather in the last eight years.

The top five bidders, which submitted the lion’s share of bids during the lease sale, are Shell (65 high bids) Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (49 high bids), Repsol (45 high bids), Chevron (28 high bids), and BP (24 high bids). While Anadarko made the largest bid at $25.5 million, Shell is by far the highest bidder in this lease sale, when it comes to the total number of bids made by a single company.

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Lease Sale 261 is the final one mandated by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). This will most likely be the last offshore sale until 2025, as the final program for 2024-2029 offshore oil and gas leasing in the Gulf of Mexico comes with the lowest number of lease sales in U.S. history, encompassing a maximum of three potential oil and gas lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico area, which are slated for 2025, 2027, and 2029, respectively.

Commenting on the Biden administration’s oil and gas policies, Erik Milito, National Ocean Industries Association President, said: “The administration has not only been unwilling to endorse policies promoting Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production, but it has actively pursued measures discouraging domestic offshore energy production. In future years without scheduled lease sales, we remain concerned about the potential shift of investment away from the U.S. to energy projects around the world.”

Despite this, climate voters are increasingly expressing concerns over the high oil and gas production during the Biden administration, especially after U.S. LNG exports reached monthly and annual record highs in December 2023. The energy market analysts are under the impression that this rise has positioned the U.S. to become the largest exporter of LNG in 2023.

Proponents of more hydrocarbon production, like the American Petroleum Institute’s Mike Sommers, argue that oil and natural gas development should be encouraged by U.S. leaders, using California’s declining energy production as a warning to elected officials that restrictions lead to a redirection of investment elsewhere.

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Thinking about what will happen in November 2024 when election time comes might seem like jumping the gun as this is still far away but time tends to slip through one’s fingers just like sand. Will Biden get a new term or will Trump return to the White House? It certainly is too early to make an educated guess as many more moves and plays are still on the table, but these elections are shaping up to be a key deciding factor in the U.S. energy future.

Some analysts even go so far as to describe them as a battle between good and evil, which seems farfetched and highly subjective. However, current political constellations throughout the world are certainly a mixed bunch, sending different signals on the energy transition and many other crucial topics for the entire world. While it is widely known where Trump and Biden stand on energy, what will happen to the American energy sector is still enshrouded in mystery until the elections are over.

As both contenders for the presidential seat in the Oval Office have certain cards stacked against them at the moment, the road ahead is bound to be paved with thorns and fraught with danger. With the art of true diplomacy in peril due to geopolitical woes and security concerns, like the ongoing Red Sea crisis, bridging the American political divide while avoiding potential energy wars between ardent supporters of fossil fuels and clean energy enthusiasts will require political stability and responsible leadership based on the rule of law rather than populist statements, which will add fuel to the fire and inflame further an already combustible situation.

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A storm of activity is already underway despite elections still being months away. With peace nowhere in sight in certain regions of the world, the volatile sentiments over ongoing conflicts will likely seep into the elections, thus, the campaigns will end up being imbued with ideas of either finding peaceful resolutions or making things even worse in some cases, depending on the stance taken to a particular security crisis.

The results of a poll, conducted by Offshore Energy, show that the majority of participants believe the world needs all the energy solutions it can get its hands on to meet growing energy demand and avert a more serious energy crisis while sidestepping a North-South transition divide.

Biden’s energy dossier confirms his willingness to bend over backward to uphold his values and clean energy agenda, but will America’s energy transition grind to a halt under Trump’s reign if he gets another term? Will Biden manage to push Bidenomics to reach its full potential? November will bring the answers to these questions and many more.

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