ICS: 411 new hydrogen ships needed to meet future hydrogen demand

August 22, 2024, by Fatima Bahtić

To meet 30 million tonnes of annual global green hydrogen demand, the world would require 411 new hydrogen vessels, according to a report published by the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS).

The report “Turning hydrogen demand into reality: Which sectors come first?”, written by Stefan Ulreich, Professor of Energy Economics at Biberach University of Applied Sciences, Germany, identifies hydrogen demand sectors, demand locations. and the demand-pull timeline.

Specifically, it focuses on the potential of clean hydrogen to function as an energy carrier and feedstock to decarbonize multiple sectors, especially hard-to-abate sectors like shipping.

“What we are seeing is that the annual hydrogen demand would mean increasing the fleet to transport hydrogen by ship. To meet a global increase if 30 million tonnes of hydrogen traded worldwide, we could need up to 411 new hydrogen vessels (for long distances) or up to 500 vessels if transported as ammonia,” Ulreich commented.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), hydrogen use is expected to remain almost stagnant and within current industrial use cases into 2030.

Hydrogen demand scenarios for 2050 see demand for hydrogen growing in multiple sectors, although the rate and timeline of uptake of hydrogen varies between sectors due to infrastructure and regulatory challenges and is likely to take place in stages.

However, not all sectors will require the same degree of transformation and infrastructure to be built to incorporate hydrogen as a replacement for fossil fuels.

The report reveals that hydrogen demand could double by 2040, with most of the additional demand coming from industrial sectors – as it is easier to uptake – acting as a baseload, the rest coming from new industrial uses and a small share of the total (less than 5%) from transport sectors.

For global hydrogen demand to keep the net-zero by 2050 scenario within reach, demand would need to scale five times from current levels to reach nearly 500 million tonnes from 2030 to 2050.

To meet future hydrogen demand, the scale of renewable electricity demand for green hydrogen production is unprecedented and leads to once-in-a-generation opportunities and challenges.

Infrastructure, demand support incentives, power supply access and an enabling environment with long-term certainty are required for ‘new sectors’ to uptake green hydrogen, it was highlighted.

The main driver of hydrogen demand in multiple sectors is the target of abatement of emissions. Making hydrogen from clean sources, its infrastructure and transportation available at scale in various regions would be key to securing a diversified supply and contribute to global low-carbon energy security.

Main hydrogen markets

The report identifies three economies as the main markets to initially drive hydrogen demand – South Korea, Japan and the EU.

Europe has a target of 20 million tonnes of hydrogen per year by 2030, with half of that volume to come from imported sources.

Recently, to support the development of the European hydrogen market, the European Commission started work on a pilot mechanism that aims to accelerate investments into the hydrogen market by providing a “clearer” picture of the market situation of both off-takers and suppliers and facilitating contacts between them.

The EU has also set up rules to define what renewable hydrogen is and how it can count towards these targets, and the Commission plans to propose a legal definition of low-carbon hydrogen by the end of the year. In addition, hydrogen supply chain projects are now considered of strategic interest, and thus eligible for faster permitting and other supportive measures, under the Net-Zero Industry Act.

In related news, in July this year, Germany approved the import strategy for hydrogen and its derivatives, a component of the country’s hydrogen policy. The aim of the import strategy is to ensure that Germany’s import needs are met and to guarantee a sustainable, stable, secure and diversified supply.

According to the report, for the maritime sector, the development of port infrastructure and readiness to facilitate the transportation of hydrogen and its derivatives. This will happen through the establishment of clean energy marine hubs which will be essential to become an enabler of the hydrogen economy.

“For global hydrogen demand to keep the net-zero by 2050 scenario within reach, demand for hydrogen-based fuel sources would need to scale five times from current levels to reach approximately 500 million tonnes from 2030 to 2050. One of the main takeaways in this report is the high variability in potential demand. Industry will dominate the hydrogen demand. Shipping however can play a key role as an enabler to the hydrogen economy,” Guy Platten, ICS Secretary General concluded.